Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Recent Action - Sabana Reit

The recent downtrend of the company puts me into the buying radar zone and I managed to purchase 230,000 shares of the company today at a share price of $0.415.

This purchase immediately made this into my top 3 holdings.

You might have recalled that earlier in the year I managed to purchase this at a lower discount at 34 cents (Link Here) when there is still all the ongoing saga about the revolt of the management, and since then a lot of things have happened.



This is a special play situation.

My main thesis of buying into this stems from the fact that E-Shang Redwood (ESR) has now emerged into a substantial shareholder with more than 5% stake.

And of course I think valuation came to an attractive level too.

Do note that ESR currently holds 80% stake in the formerly known Cambridge Industrial Trust and Warburg (largest shareholder of ESR) has a plan to grow and consolidate their industrial properties into one, most notable injection into the currently known ESR Reit.

While the strategic review is still ongoing and we are kept waiting for the outcome, I feel the recent downtrend of the share price presents a solid opportunity for investors to enter.

First, the current price represents a 33% discount to the nav of 56 cents (based on latest quarterly results). Given that ESR is a substantial shareholder for both Sabana and ESR Reit, the buyout would be considered a related party transactions. In order for that to take place under the arm's length agreement which is usually a lot more stringent, the buyout would have to minimally be offered at least to the nav price. That to me tilts the rewards highly in the favor of those who are vested at this valuation.

If there are anything to add, the last divestment of the properties they made at 218 Pandan Loop was transacted at 13.8% higher than the book value of the properties. 

Second, the fact that ESR holds a substantial shareholder stake in Sabana is also a strategic move for the fact that they are able to call for management to convene an EGM. If they are not a substantial shareholder, it would be a lot harder for them to do that. There is a purpose for them to become a substantial shareholder with an agenda.

Third, there are many similarities in the shareholder profile with Sabana and ESR, with Tong JinQuan being one of those who holds both substantial stake. That makes it easier for ESR to convince key stakeholders for a buyout offer.

Fourth, from a technical point of view, we see a much stronger support based on $0.415 while volume sell today is winding down. The next best support would have been at 34 cents (the price I originally bought).

Fifth, the gearing of the company has since reduced from the earlier of 42% to the current of 36%, which means in terms of gearing debtroom, they are able to take more loan to fund the next property purchase, which I deemed unlikely at this point because I feel they would sell the assets.

Sixth, the current share price is trading at an 8% yield. What this means is for as long as the strategic review is not concluded, we would be sitting with a 8% yield while waiting.

Seventh, while 4 of the master leases are expiring this year, 3 of them are coming from sponsor related, so the risk is virtually much lower.

Point 5 to 7 are not something I am after too much at this point so it's a relatively consolation factor for me.

Thanks for reading.

If you like our articles, you may follow our Facebook Page here.


3 comments:

  1. wow, very strong conviction there , B!
    big balls of , errr......, sabana..

    i think after your post tdy, we will see the price lift off..

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi there, just saw on SGX that the ESR deal is off. Bought some this week at 42.5...should I offload?

    ReplyDelete

UA-57154194-1