Friday, October 6, 2017

"Oct 17" - SG Transactions & Portfolio Update"

No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
Comfortdelgro
70,000
2.00
140,000.00
23.0%
2.
M1
67,000
1.78
119,260.00
19.0%
3.
Fraser Logistic Trust
80,000
1.08
86,400.00
14.0%
4.
First Reit
30,034
1.355
40,700.00
6.0%
5.
Vicom
6,600
5.70
37,620.00
6.0%
6.
Warchest*
190,000.00
31.0%
Total SGD
613,980.00
100.00%

It's time for another update for the month once again.

I've been so busy with work recently that I don't have much time to monitor and research the market much. Other than returning from our holiday trip in Penang, I've also been assigned to go to the Bangkok office for a week hence the running here and there. I've also had some issues relating to my health (toothpain) as I needed to extract out my wisdom tooth later in the week, so that's another thing that I am worrying about.

It seems like I did quite a bit of divesting as I trimmed down the number of stocks in my portfolio as I went heavier in cash nowadays, I guess I really am not able to find anything with compelling value. I am currently monitoring some hotel developers like Grand Hotel Central and FEO as I think they'll do well in the next couple of years with the sector. I'll have to wait for the right time for this.





During the month, I made a full divestment for Fraser Commercial Trust (FCOT) at $1.37 after they announced that their anchor tenant, Hewlett Packard, will not be extending their lease at Alexandra Tech Point. It's quite weird because I actually know much earlier that they will be moving to Depot road through the course of my job but for some reason I didn't expect them not to announce it to the public yet only until recently. In view of the uncertainties, I am out of this first meanwhile and will hunt for something else.

I also divested the rest of my CDL Hospitality Trust (CDLHT) at $1.63, which represents a pre-rights price of $1.71. Some might recall that I used to have this as my top position earlier in the year before I divested them bits by bits. I had a bit of doubts in my decision when I consider this because we all know the hospitality sentiments are now turning back up, but for some reason I am not very comfortable with the valuation they are now. It just doesn't seem there are too much margin of safety here at this price.

I used some of the proceeds to accumulate more positions in Comfortdelgro and M1 as I tried to build a bigger position in these two currently. I am just adding them a bit each month as and when my cash allows as I still have belief in them that most of the bad news have been priced in by the market, even to the extent too much reaction from them.

You can view the full detailed transaction here.

Networth Portfolio

The portfolio has decreased from $620,386 in previous month to $613,980 this month (-1.1% month on month; 38.9% year on year).

To be frank, the second half of the year has been a year of underperformance as it did nothing but down in general and I do not expect my performance to turn around anytime soon. On the other note, I do not have any properties and banks in my portfolio either so it'll be a matter of time before I trail the market. But let's see how it goes by the year end.


The earnings season is here again and I am looking forward to it once again as I will kick start monitoring closely the companies I have in my portfolio.

Thanks for reading.

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19 comments:

  1. Wow big positions in comfort and M1. i salute your confidence and composure to bet big on them. Hope it turns out well.

    Aside, may I ask why do u think that hospitality sector can do well in future? What sort of indicators/ news/that help u form that opinion? Or gut feel?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi CSCCC

      I am bullish in general on hospitality due to a few recent transactions done from the Chinese and companies are starting to expand as well on the development. Overseas wise we have to watch the forex of course but it could work in their favor, cheap forex boost hospitality like in the UK.

      Delete
  2. Hi B,

    It's nice to see your updates! Hope you're feeling better. Seems like you're gearing up for a bargain :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Sleepydevil

      I'm gearing up more for my wisdom tooth surgery hahaha its a long timeframe for investment, no hurry for me.

      Delete
  3. You tempted me on M1 and CDG with your confidence. Hope they go well !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Cory

      Thanks, I hope they'd do fine as well, which I think they will.

      Delete
  4. May i know what is the P&L for the portfolio?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Henry

      Its in sgxcafe, and I usually tabulate them only a year end for reconciling purpose.

      Delete
  5. Hi B

    I will like to find out what software/website you use to analyse a particular stock's data (income/balance sheet)? On yahoo finance, it only has the last 3-4 years of data which I feel its insufficient. Thanks

    J

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Unknown

      I used to use capitaliq in the past but my subscription expired after I graduated from my masters. Nowadays I have to rely on going back to individual annual report or financial statement and do the traditional method.

      Delete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi B,

    Can I ask what is your holding period in general as you have a very focused portfolio?

    Also, will you be planning to average down / divest if there is further bad news driving down the share price of comfort? Or hold for approximately 3-5 years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi INTJ

      My holding period is usually short, as I tend to move around in the portfolio thesis that has catalyst shorter. If a company is undervalued but no catalyst in sight, I will put them in my watchlist and hunt for others first and come back to them as it gets nearer.

      Delete
  8. Hey B,

    I remember a couple of years (~4 / 5) ago you had a negative view on comfortdelgro when uber first came into the Sg market.

    My argument is that Uber then won't impact comfortdelgro's earnings as they were just eating into the 'booking fees' (this was before UberX was available).

    I divested Comfort a couple of months after UberX became available as it started competing directly with the taxi rental.

    I am not extremely negative towards Comfort due to grabcar / uberX / Gojek which competes directly with Comfortdelgro taxi rental market.

    I believe Comfort will continue its slow slide down...

    Again my view, happy to hear your thoughts.


    Regards,
    JW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi JW

      You are sharp to exit the investment once you sniff danger.

      I was a bit slower this time and underestimated the impact, didnt expect it to come out a lot worst. I don't have a good impression of the future it might bring to the taxi industry too.

      The valuation howver brings me to my interest. At this price range, I think they are being fairly valued and thus my main reason to hold it out a bit longer to "wait and see". If Mr market should reprice it upward or downward, I would make a decision by then.

      Delete
  9. I am extremely negative*

    ReplyDelete
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